Smartkarma Sunday Summaries — 14 Jan 2024
This weekly newsletter pulls together the most-engaged Insights published over the last 7 days from across the different content verticals on the Smartkarma Network.
In this week's edition:
01. Macro & Cross-Asset
The Hong Kong market offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, suggesting a barbell strategy with high-beta and low volatility dividend stocks could be beneficial for portfolio returns.
EM by EM #37: The Taiwan election & the Trade war | Emil Moller
Main takeaways:A victory for Lai in the upcoming election has the potential to significantly elevate geopolitical risks. Should Taipei fail to...
KOSPI Superperformance Stocks (2019-2023) | Douglas Kim
There are some important takeaways from a review of the top 10 performing stocks in each of the five years in KOSPI, including market cap, sector rotation, and turnarounds.
02. Equity Bottom-Up & Forensic Accounting
Fast Retailing: 1QFY24 Earnings | Oshadhi Kumarasiri
Fast Retailing's Q1 results exceeded expectations, with Uniqlo Int showing strong growth in regions expected to underperform and Uniqlo Japan topping expectations with gross margin improvement.
Pacific Textiles (1382 HK): Material Benefits | David Blennerhassett
The key factors which made Pacific Textiles attractive previously (value, solid dividend, M&A angle) remain intact. If small-cap names are your thing, I'd be picking up shares here.
Alibaba (BABA US): No Where to Go but Up | Eric Chen
Alibaba is embarking on a strategic transformation to become leaner, more efficient and more profitable, prioritizing core business and shareholder return. We expect a comeback in 2024 with 15% CAGR.
03. FICC & Crypto
EIA expects crude oil oversupply to continue despite OPEC cuts, Forecasts oil prices to decline in 2024 and 2025 due to slowing demand growth and inventory build-up
[Counting Beans #4]: Soybean Price Tumbles as Headwinds Prevail | Pranay Yadav
US soybean futures drop 4% as headwinds prevail. Headwinds expected to persist but potential for a correction over the next week as traders watch Brazil's weather and production outlooks.
Crypto Moves #9 – Is It Too Obvious That 2024 is the Year of Crypto? | Andreas Steno
Welcome to 2024. Everyone is buzzing with anticipation, predicting a highly favorable year for crypto. The general sentiment in the market...
04. ECM & Private Capital Markets
Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - Hong Kong | Sumeet Singh
In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, starting with Hong Kong including the filed, lapsed and future filings.
Lasertec (6920) Accelerated Block Offering - ¥60bn Likely Easily Taken Up | Travis Lundy
After the close today, a block offering in Lasertec was announced. It's 2% of shares from two bank cross-holders. 1.8mm shares so 0.2x ADV at a 3% discount. It will get taken up easily.
Samsung Electronics Placement - Somewhat Well Flagged but Could Have Timed It Better | Sumeet Singh
KEB Hana Bank, on behalf of the Lee family, is looking to raise up to US$1.6bn via selling 0.5% of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)
05. Event-Driven & Index Rebalance
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves | Brian Freitas
There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading near their lows. Stocks move post announcement.
March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock, Still | Travis Lundy
No changes to the expected ADDs and DELETEs to Nikkei 225 in March from last month. Two choices each are obvious, one is a toss-up in each case. Fast Retailing now trades more independently from N225.
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March | Brian Freitas
We highlight 9 stocks that could be added to the HSI in March and beyond. Impact on inclusion will be big and there is a lot of short interest on the stocks. Changes to the HSICS will impact adds.
06. Thematic & ESG
Ohayo Japan | CPI Caps Stocks; Nikkei at 34 Year High | Mark Chadwick
Annual CPI comes in higher than expected at 3.4%, leading to a decrease in odds of a March rate cut. Nikkei reaches a 34-year high, Yen falls, and Japan plans to allocate $130b for decarbonization.
India Shorting Framework | Same Soup, Just Reheated | Pranav Bhavsar
The Securities and Exchange Board of India releases new rules on short selling, causing market unease. Key change is the disclosure of short interest, but shorting remains difficult in India.
Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/1/2024 | William Keating
Quintaurius, a RISC-V collaboration between Bosch, Infineon, Nordic, NXP & Qualcomm, launches. Intel gets first ASML High-NA EUV tool. Great photo opp but that's about as far as it goes
⭐️ Smartkarma Originals 🔓
China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 2 | Xinyao (Criss) Wang
Several regions have successively introduced policies to encourage childbirth, so we analyzed the recent policy updates. Based on Livzon/BGI/Jinxin's 23H1 reports, we adjusted our forecast accordingly
Japanese inflation peaked at 4.3% in January 2023 but decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the following months. For most items except Fuel and Utilities, inflation remained stable.
ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Progressing Towards a Robust EV Ecosystem | Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA
Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal and the governments in the ASEAN region continue to introduce new policy measures and incentives to promote the EV sector.
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